China & World Economy  / 108–126, Vol. 20,  No. 4, 2012

China’s Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN, Japan and Korea: A Comparative Analysis

Gemma Estrada, Donghyun Park, Innwon Park, Soonchan Park*

Abstract

The role of China in East Asia’s recovery from the recent global financial and economic crisis highlights China’s position as an engine of growth for this region. From the viewpoint of China, there are many potential gains from entering into free trade agreements (FTAs) with its neighbors, who collectively form a large and fast-growing market. In this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the four main permutations of China’s FTAs with East Asian major economies: China–ASEAN, China–Japan, China–Korea and ASEAN+3. We compare the effects of these FTAs on China’s output and welfare. Our comparative analysis shows that China will gain from all three bilateral FTAs, while gaining the most from the ASEAN+3. Because forming a region-wide FTA, such as the ASEAN+3, is expected to be gradual and difficult, China should continue to engage in bilateral FTAs as a medium-term and alternative strategy. However, in the long term, China should pursue a region-wide FTA.

Key words: ASEAN, China, computable general equilibrium model, East Asia, free trade agreement

JEL codes: F10, F14, F15