China & World Economy / pp.16-25 Vol.13 No.2 March-April 2005
Long-Term Development Trend of China's Economy and Importance of the Circular Economy
Wan You, Jianguo Qi
[Abstract] This paper aims to explore the solution to the contradiction between economic growth and resources and the eco-environment, based on an analysis of the features of China's economic development trend within a given future period, by promoting a new paradigm of technological economy, and speeding up development of the circular economy.
[Key Words] China's economy, development trend, circular economy
In 2003, China’s economy grew at a rate of over 9 percent with per capita GDP hitting US$ 1,090 for the first time, which means that China’s economy and social development have entered a high-growth cycle characterized by rapid structural changes. However, this round of high growth is based on resources and an ecological environment completely different from those of twenty five years ago. Based on an analysis of the new features of future economic development in China, as well as the resource and environmental costs of economic growth, this paper aims to explore a new paradigm of technological economy circular economy, and finally draw our conclusion.
I. The Features of Future Development of China’s Economy
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II. Analysis of Resources and Environment Costs of China’s Economic Growth
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III. The Fundamental Treatment of Environmental Pollution and Circular Economy
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IV. Conclusion
The five trends of China’s long-term economic development show that China will enter a transition period while achieving high economic growth. During this period we must solve a series of economic and social problems accumulated over the past few decades, including the imbalance between social and economic development, the expanding gap in income between rural and urban areas and among different regions, and new structural crisis between economic growth and natural ecological environment. The solution to these problems will depend on rapid economic growth.
China has achieved rapid economic growth at the cost of serious ecological environmental loss, and on the back of consumption of enormous natural resources. China is facing scarcity of some natural resources and pressure on the ecological environment, which makes it difficult to continue the approach of developing its economy by overdrawing its ecological environment. To solve the multiplicity of contradictions among China’s sustained rapid economic growth, over-consumption of resources and serious ecological environmental pollution, the development of circular economy will be a necessary choice, which can achieve the goal of rapid economic growth while reducing resource consumption and aggregate quantity of environmental pollution, thus achieving sustainable economic growth.