The Journal of World Economy 2022, No.9
Robotic Applications and Export Product Scope Adjustments: Can Efficiency and Quality be Achieved Simultaneously?
Qi Jianhong; Zhang Zhitong
Abstract：Looking at multiproduct exporting enterprises, this paper uses matching data from China’s Industrial Enterprise Database and Customs Database from between 2000 and 2015 to investigate the impact, channels and competition strategy of robotic applications in adjusting the scope of export products. The results reveal that robotic applications significantly expand the export product scope of multiproduct enterprises, and this effect is particularly prominent among labour-intensive product exporting, resource- intensive and non-state-owned enterprises. Unlike previous studies, the study concludes that the adjustment in the export product scope through robotic applications is not only carried out through the productivity-improvement and cost-saving effects but is also realised through the emission-reduction effect and the product quality improvement effect, the latter effect being even more obvious in enterprises with a long quality ladder. Robotic applications expand the scope of old and new products within the same industry. In the face of fierce peer competition, exporting enterprises with robotic applications prefer the quality competition strategy, which further drives the expansion of the export product scope.
Key words：artificial intelligence (AI), multiproduct exporter, product scope, high-quality trade development
JEL codes：JEL codes: F18, L11, O33
Impact of the Tariff Imposition on the Local Labour Market of China
Tan Ying; Li Xin; Yang Zi; Zhang Xun
Abstract：Employment is people’s most important economic support, and it is therefore of the utmost importance to conduct a complete assessment of the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s labour market. In a pioneering attempt to study such an impact, this paper uses product-level customs data to measure tariff imposition on both final and intermediate products and combines them with microdata of A- listed manufacturing companies to assess it. First, the study finds that, while an increase in output tariffs favours the protection of the employment of domestic companies, the impact of input tariffs has a greater effect on reducing employment growth. Through heterogeneity, the imposition of tariffs has a significant impact on vulnerable groups with lower replacing costs and regions with a higher level of openness. However, the free movement of labour helps to alleviate the negative effects of tariff imposition. Finally, the underlying mechanism of the tariff-employment nexus lies in reduced sales, asset growth and net profit. Strengthening the support and safeguarding of specific personnel, improving vocational training and employment services and eliminating labour market segmentation between regions are important ways to mitigate the negative impact of additional tariffs.
Key words：output tariff, input tariff, labour market, Sino-US trade friction
JEL codes：JEL codes: F02, F16, F42
The Risk Governance Effect of Creditors’Credit Constraints from the Perspective of Signal Transmission
Guo Yuqing; Jiang Xiaoni; Mao Jie; Wang Hao
Abstract：In response to the risk impact of generalised off-balance sheet debt stemming from local financing platforms, a consensus has been developed at the academic and policy level to adhere to the bottom-line mindset to avoid financialization of fiscal risk. Based on the policy formulated by the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) that restricts creditors’lending by setting cash-flow coverage threshold conditions, this paper constructs a signalling game model to explain the theoretical logic of risk governance from the price reduction perspective, and subsequently uses the fuzzy regression discontinuity design (FRDD) to provide empirical evidence on the signalling transmission mechanism. The findings indicate that creditors’credit constraints affect market decision-making through risk signals issued by the credit scale of financial institutions. At the threshold point of the“full cash flow coverage”policy, the risk premium of urban investment bonds (UIBs) is restored, which promotes the market-oriented pricing mechanism for debt risks. To curb the spillover from debt risk to financial risk during the transition period, this paper provides policy suggestions to improve the price discovery function, promote debt information disclosure and reduce implicit contractual intervention.
Key words：creditors’credit constraints, risk premium of urban investment bonds (UIBs), degree of contractual intervention, signalling transmission
JEL codes：JEL codes: D82, H74, H81
Guarantee Network Crisis, Debt Run and Regional Risk Governance
Zhang Yilin; Yu Yunjun; Pu Ming
Abstract：The paper analyses the game between the different banks of the guarantee network, finding that when a certain enterprise of the guarantee network defaults on its debts, the member of the group that guarantees the defaulting enterprise faces new debts and adds creditor banks to its list since the debt repayment obligation has been transferred. Worse still, the new creditor banks and the group member’s original creditor banks collectively withdraw the loans, resulting in a shortage of liquidity and a default on debt repayment, which in turn can trigger a new round of debt runs and a rupture of the capital chain, and eventually evolve into a contagious regional financial crisis. The paper also points out that in the context of breaking the rigid repayment, the granting of seniority to certain creditors in the guarantee network can resolve the guarantee network crisis generated by debt run and play a role in maintaining regional financial and economic stability, which turns out to be a better settlement than directly providing policy guarantees for enterprises in crisis or requiring banks to relax loan renewal standards for enterprises in crisis through administrative orders.
Key words：guarantee network, regional financial crisis, risk resolution
JEL codes：JEL codes: G20, G21, G28
Corporate Bond Issuance and Loan Cost
Huang Jicheng; Yong Hongyan; Kan Shuo
Abstract：In the development context of multi-head regulation and multiple bond varieties, this paper studies the impact and mechanism of corporate bond issuance with different levels of financing convenience on the loan cost of listed companies. The results of the study reveal that in the initial scenario, the issuance of short-term commercial papers and medium-term notes with greater financing convenience significantly reduces the cost of corporate loans, while the issuance of corporate bonds with relatively more constraints and less financing convenience does not seem to have a significant impact on the cost of corporate loans. In the multi-issuance scenario, the paper finds that the higher the frequency of issuance and scale of short-term commercial papers or medium-term notes, the stronger the cost-cutting effect of loans becomes. The re-issuance of other types of bonds with financing convenience after their initial issuance also has a significant incremental effect on reducing loan costs. The above results support the alternative financing channel mechanism of corporate bond issuance that affects loan costs and provide empirical evidence for the related theory.
Key words：bond issuance, loan cost, financing convenience, alternative financing channel
JEL codes：JEL codes: G32, G34, G21
Big-Data Credit Investigation and Platform User Traffic: An Empirical Study of Deposit-Free Bike-Sharing
Cao Guangyu; Liu Chang; Zhou Li’an
Abstract：Personnel credit investigation services based on big-data technology play a key role in the construction of the social credit system. However, the current major providers of big-data credit investigation services in China are mostly integrated into internet platform companies rather than independent entities, and therefore their rapid growth has also raised concerns regarding the concentration of user traffic on major platforms. This paper uses the policy adopted by a leading bike-sharing platform where a consumer can use its shared bikes without any cash pledge if his/her Zhima Credit score reaches 650 points. Using individual consumer-level data aided by a regression discontinuity identification strategy, the paper finds that the credit-based deposit-free policy increases the proportion of bike-sharing usage through the Alipay APP by about 12%, while all other competing platforms experience decreases in user traffic. The paper provides novel empirical evidence showing that internet platform companies could go so far as to leverage big-data credit investigation technology to affect the competitive structure of the market. This insight offers rich policy implications for anti-trust regulation of internet platforms and the construction of the social credit system in China.
Key words：big-data credit investigation, bike-sharing, platform user traffic
JEL codes：JEL codes: L41; G28; D12
Climate Change and Offline Service Consumption: Evidence from the Film Industry
Jin Gang; Shen Kunrong
Abstract：Drawing on daily city-level cinema data and weather data for China during 2012-2016, this paper firstly identifies the causal effect of daily maximum temperature changes on film consumption; and secondly, in combination with the future climate change path, it simulates the medium-term and long- term impact of climate change on film consumption. This paper finds that an increase in daily maximum temperature significantly reduces cinema attendance. Using [10℃, 15℃) as a reference range, lower daily maximum temperatures increase cinema attendance and higher daily maximum temperatures decrease cinema attendance. As the daily maximum temperature rises, the negative effect is particularly pronounced in the high temperature range above 30℃. Using [10℃, 15℃) as a reference range, it is observed that an increase in the daily maximum temperature up to [30℃ , 35℃ ) results in a 7.89% loss in cinema attendance, and an increase above 35°C results in a 13.12% loss in cinema attendance. Combining the marginal effects of daily maximum temperature with changes in the distribution of each temperature interval in the medium and long term, and given constant CO2 emissions, this paper also finds that climate change will reduce cinema attendance in both the medium term (2041-2060) and long term (2061-2080), with the long term effect almost twice as large as the medium term effect. The economic cost generated by long-term climate change through the impact on film consumption will be approximately RMB 3.532 billion. This study provides a new perspective for a comprehensive understanding of the economic consequences of climate change, as well as clear empirical evidence on the potential benefits of climate change governance.
Key words：temperature shocks, climate change, offline service industry, film consumption
JEL codes：JEL codes: E21, O14, Q54
Evaluation of the Urban Renewal Policy Effects: Taking Shenzhen as an Example
Li Songlin; Liu Xiuyan
Abstract：This paper empirically investigates the externalities of urban renewal and the mechanism behind it using detailed geographical boundary-matching data of Shenzhen urban renewal projects between 2010 and 2016, housing transaction data, industrial and commercial company registration data, and population data at the grid level of Shenzhen city. The results of the analysis show that housing prices, population, and the number of registered service companies within one kilometer of the renewal project have increased by an average rate of 9.04%, 1.69% and 1.83% respectively in the 10 years since the urban renewal. Heterogeneity analysis and mechanism testing confirm that projects with larger renewal scales have stronger positive spillover effects, and increased amenities brought by renewal are the main spillover channel for positive urban renewal externalities. Therefore, in guiding urban renewal planning, the government must fully consider the external impact of urban renewal and release the scale effect of the renewal. As for renewal guidelines, projects with mixed commercial or commercial and residential functions should be promoted to improve the urban spatial structure and enhance the quality of neighbourhoods.
Key words：urban renewal, spatial difference-in-differences (DID), externalities, spillover effects
JEL codes：JEL codes: D62, H23, R21, R31
China Securities Investor Services Center’s Exercising and Alleviation of the Investors’ Information Disadvantage: A Perspective of the Stock Price Crash
Chen Kejing; Xiong Xiong; Yang Guochao; Zhang Wei
Abstract：This paper manually collects data on the China Securities Investor Services Center’s (CSISC) exercises and investigates its information governance effect from the perspective of disclosure of negative corporate information. The results of the study reveal that the participation of minority shareholders can alleviate investors’information disadvantage and promote the disclosure of negative corporate information. Specifically, the risk of a stock price crash is significantly reduced. The exercising of the CSISC has a more prominent role in information governance when participating in shareholder meetings, media briefings on material asset reorganisation and online inquiries. The information governance effect is more significant when there are more detailed inquiries from the CSISC and there are more detailed the responses of the listed company. The exercising of the CSISC facilitates the disclosure of negative corporate information through both internal and external information governance channels. This paper verifies the policy effect of minority shareholders’participation on innovation of corporate governance mechanism, and provides important implications for understanding the role of minority shareholders in corporate governance.
Key words：China Securities Investor Services Center (CSISC), minority shareholder participation,concealment of negative information, risk of stock price crash, information governance
JEL codes：JEL codes: G14, G18, K2