China & World Economy / 85–103, Vol. 24, No. 1, 2016

Estimating Chinese Trade Relationships with the Silk Road Countries

E. Mine Cinar, Joseph Johnson, Katherine Geusz*

Abstract

In this paper we discuss the extent to which countries in the former Silk Road regions are either reaching or failing to reach their trading potential with China. We estimate a gravity model of trade using a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator, and estimate trade potential using in-sample, out-of-sample and counterfactual approaches. We compare trade potential using these three methods for Silk Road country trades with China. Next, we compare the estimated trade potential to actual trade, and find that most Silk Road countries are underperforming in their trade with China. However, trade performance against potential improved for most countries over the years 1990–2013. Our results suggest that China’s former Silk Road trading partners have yet to realize the full potential benefits of China’s economic growth but that the gap may be narrowing.

Key words: China, gravity models of trade, international trade, Silk Road
JEL codes: F14, O19, O53