China & World Economy  / 104–122, Vol. 24,  No. 1, 2016

Influence of RMB Cross-border Settlement

on the Chinese Economy

Qiyuan Xu, Fan He*

Abstract

In 2014, the amount of RMB cross-border settlement had reached RMB7.6tn. It is important to evaluate the potential influence of RMB internationalization on China’s macroeconomy. In the present study, a framework that includes monetary supply and demand was created to analyze the influences of RMB cross-border settlement on China’s domestic interest rate, asset price and foreign exchange reserves. It is found that RMB settlement in different BOP items leads to very different effects on China’s real economy and the financial market. Based on the analysis, we provide a framework of the policy priorities for RMB internationalization, with the RMB cross-border settlement items divided into three groups with different priorities. Meanwhile, to support RMB internationalization, exchange rate reforms should be adopted as a priority and a prudent attitude maintained regarding capital account liberalization.

Key words: Chinese economy, influence, monetary policy, RMB internationalization
JEL codes: E44, E52, F36, F38