China & World Economy / 107–126, Vol. 24, No. 2, 2016

Asymmetric Fluctuating Behavior of China’s Housing Prices

Wen-Yuan Lin, I-Chun Tsai*

Abstract

The present study explains the reasons for the imbalanced development of the Chinese housing market. Using the quantile autoregression unit-root test, we examine housing prices in China’s five major cities. The results show that the rising and falling of housing prices in these cities exhibits asymmetric reversion. When housing prices fall, market capital is highly sensitive to housing prices, and housing prices resist the pressure to fall further. However, when housing prices rise, the housing market becomes imbalanced, with housing prices tending to overreact in an upturn. The results of this study indicate that when housing prices rise irrationally, the government should intervene in the housing market promptly to prevent housing bubbles.

Key words: Chinese housing market, housing bubble, housing price behavior, persistent housing rewards, quantile autoregression unit-root test
JEL codes: R10, R31